📝 SummarXiv

Abstract

In network-based SIS models of infectious disease transmission, infection can only occur between directly connected individuals. This constraint naturally gives rise to spatial correlations between the states of neighboring nodes, as the infection status of connected individuals becomes interdependent. Although mean-field approximations are commonly invoked to simplify disease forecasting on networks, they fail to account for these correlations by assuming that infectious individuals are well-mixed within a population, leading to inaccurate predictions of infection numbers over time. As such, the development of mathematical frameworks that account for spatially correlated infections is of great interest, as they offer a compromise between accurate disease forecasting and analytic tractability. Here, we use existing corrections to mean-field theory on the regular lattice to construct a more general framework for equivalent corrections on regular random graph topologies. We derive and simulate a system of ordinary differential equations for the time evolution of the spatial correlation function at various geodesic distances on random networks, and use solutions to this hierarchy of ordinary differential equations to predict the global infection density as a function of time, finding good agreement with corresponding numerical simulations. Our results constitute a substantial development on existing corrections to mean-field theory for infectious individuals in SIS processes and provide an in-depth characterization of how structural randomness in networks affects the dynamical trajectories of infectious diseases on networks.