📝 SummarXiv

Abstract

Power-law distributions are widely recognized in complex systems physics as indicative of underlying complexity in interaction networks and critical macroscopic behavior. Previous studies, notably those of Newman and others, have emphasized the importance of network structure and dynamics in understanding the emergence of such statistical patterns and predicting extreme events. In this study, we investigate the emergence of power-law behavior in delay distributions within a multi-level hierarchical network of agents governed by simple priority rules. Using railway systems as a case study, we model the dynamics of high-speed and local trains agents assigned distinct priority levels-operating within a simplified hierarchical network framework. By introducing Laplacian-distributed stochastic fluctuations into scheduled travel times, derived from empirical data, we observe that local trains exhibit a markedly higher incidence of higher delays than high-speed trains. To account for this phenomenon, we propose a queue-based dynamical model, calibrated using Italian railway data, and validate our findings through comparative analysis with both Italian and German datasets. The model accurately reproduces the empirically observed power-law exponent associated with the Italian local train delays. Furthermore, we analyze the influence of operational policies, such as priority assignment and delay compensation thresholds, revealing distinct cut-offs in delay distributions at 30 and 60 minutes for high-speed and local trains, respectively-corresponding to refund eligibility criteria in Italy. Such cut-offs are absent in the German case, where no comparable priority-change policies are in effect. These results underscore the capacity of simple hierarchical structures and rule-based dynamics to generate complex statistical behaviors without necessitating intricate interaction networks.