📝 SummarXiv

Abstract

In the aftermath of disasters, many institutions worldwide face challenges in continually monitoring changes in disaster risk, limiting the ability of key decision-makers to assess progress towards the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. While numerous efforts have substantially advanced the large-scale modeling of hazard and exposure through Earth observation and data-driven methods, progress remains limited in modeling another equally important yet challenging element of the risk equation: physical vulnerability. To address this gap, we introduce Graph Categorical Structured Variational Autoencoder (GraphCSVAE), a novel probabilistic data-driven framework for modeling physical vulnerability by integrating deep learning, graph representation, and categorical probabilistic inference, using time-series satellite-derived datasets and prior expert belief systems. We introduce a weakly supervised first-order transition matrix that reflects the changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of physical vulnerability in two disaster-stricken and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas: (1) the cyclone-impacted coastal Khurushkul community in Bangladesh and (2) the mudslide-affected city of Freetown in Sierra Leone. Our work reveals post-disaster regional dynamics in physical vulnerability, offering valuable insights into localized spatiotemporal auditing and sustainable strategies for post-disaster risk reduction.