📝 SummarXiv

Abstract

Modeling the dynamics of probability distributions from time-dependent data samples is a fundamental problem in many fields, including digital health. The goal is to analyze how the distribution of a biomarker, such as glucose, changes over time and how these changes may reflect the progression of chronic diseases such as diabetes. We introduce a probabilistic model based on a Gaussian mixture that captures the evolution of a continuous-time stochastic process. Our approach combines a nonparametric estimate of the distribution, obtained with Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), and a Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) that governs the temporal evolution of the mixture weights. The model is highly interpretable, detects subtle distribution shifts, and remains computationally efficient. We illustrate the broad utility of our approach in a 26-week clinical trial that treats all continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) time series as the primary outcome. This method enables rigorous longitudinal comparisons between the treatment and control arms and yields characterizations that conventional summary-based clinical trials analytical methods typically do not capture.