📝 SummarXiv

Abstract

This study addresses the critical challenge of error accumulation in spatio-temporal auto-regressive (AR) predictions within scientific machine learning models by exploring temporal integration schemes and adaptive multi-step rollout strategies. We introduce the first implementation of the two-step Adams-Bashforth method specifically tailored for data-driven AR prediction, leveraging historical derivative information to enhance numerical stability without additional computational overhead. To validate our approach, we systematically evaluate time integration schemes across canonical 2D PDEs before extending to complex Navier-Stokes cylinder vortex shedding dynamics. Additionally, we develop three novel adaptive weighting strategies that dynamically adjust the importance of different future time steps during multi-step rollout training. Our analysis reveals that as physical complexity increases, such sophisticated rollout techniques become essential, with the Adams-Bashforth scheme demonstrating consistent robustness across investigated systems and our best adaptive approach delivering an 89% improvement over conventional fixed-weight methods while maintaining similar computational costs. For the complex Navier-Stokes vortex shedding problem, despite using an extremely lightweight graph neural network with just 1,177 trainable parameters and training on only 50 snapshots, our framework accurately predicts 350 future time steps reducing mean squared error from 0.125 (single-step direct prediction) to 0.002 (Adams-Bashforth with proposed multi-step rollout). Our integrated methodology demonstrates an 83% improvement over standard noise injection techniques and maintains robustness under severe spatial constraints; specifically, when trained on only a partial spatial domain, it still achieves 58% and 27% improvements over direct prediction and forward Euler methods, respectively.