📝 SummarXiv

Abstract

This paper examines the origins of Islamist insurgencies, or jihad, through the lens of past prosperity, decline, and cultural revival in West Africa. Using shrinking water sources as an instrument, we show that trans-Saharan cities once-thriving under pre-colonial Islamic states but now deserted have become contemporary hotspots of jihadist violence. We argue that military power asymmetries between Islamic states and colonizers during historical jihad shaped the persistence of jihadist ideology, fueling today's resurgence especially in areas that lacked intense armed resistance against colonial invasions. Extensive qualitative evidence, a dynamic model of conflict, and individual-level surveys examining ideologies support this mechanism.