From Noise to Precision: A Diffusion-Driven Approach to Zero-Inflated Precipitation Prediction
Wentao Gao, Jiuyong Li, Lin Liu, Thuc Duy Le, Xiongren Chen, Xiaojing Du, Jixue Liu, Yanchang Zhao, Yun Chen
Published: 2025/9/1
Abstract
Zero-inflated data pose significant challenges in precipitation forecasting due to the predominance of zeros with sparse non-zero events. To address this, we propose the Zero Inflation Diffusion Framework (ZIDF), which integrates Gaussian perturbation for smoothing zero-inflated distributions, Transformer-based prediction for capturing temporal patterns, and diffusion-based denoising to restore the original data structure. In our experiments, we use observational precipitation data collected from South Australia along with synthetically generated zero-inflated data. Results show that ZIDF demonstrates significant performance improvements over multiple state-of-the-art precipitation forecasting models, achieving up to 56.7\% reduction in MSE and 21.1\% reduction in MAE relative to the baseline Non-stationary Transformer. These findings highlight ZIDF's ability to robustly handle sparse time series data and suggest its potential generalizability to other domains where zero inflation is a key challenge.